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nba draft analysis

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R.J. Barrett

Picture
Pro Comparison 
Similar to DeMar DeRozan

NBA Projection
Starter/All-Star

Measurements
​6'7"  202 lbs  6'10" wingspan  19 years old
Projectable Skills
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  • Size/Length - Good frame, listed at 6'7" 202 lbs, NBA wing build. Toned/muscular, broad shoulders and balanced upper/lower body, will continue to bulk up while maintaining fluidity.  Plays stronger/bigger than listed, doesn't shy away from contact, nice ability to generate space without fouling. Tends to come alive more after physical plays. Solid length (6'10" wingspan), uses length to rebound, complete difficult passes, finish, and disrupt passing lanes. 
  • Athleticism - Good athlete, fluid/fast in the open court. Can explode off 1/2 feet, but is primarily a 2 feet leaper. Doesn't need time to gather, can elevate quickly in traffic and catch defenders off guard. Impressive ability to explode on the move in transition while maintaining speed. Solid ability to change speed in the half court, has some burst, good combination of a fairly quick 1st step/long strides. 
  • Transition - Very good (75th percentile) transition player via Synergy. Can grab and go, dangerous on the break, comfortable filling a wing as a lob/finishing target or acting as a facilitator. Can make quick reads in numbers situations. Able to finish at an efficient clip around the rim in transition, especially good going left and absorbing contact. 
  • Shooting Upside - Solid shot mechanics, has worked hard to improve jumper. Shooting ~70% from the FT line, has had multiple efficient shooting games from deep this season. At his best as a standstill spot up shooter, does a nice job with shot preparation (getting square, low, hands up) when the ball swings to him. Solid ability to pull-up off the dribble, nice footwork on step-backs, very good (72nd percentile) on all shots off the dribble. Very much a work in progress, but has a foundation to work with. 
  • Playmaking/Creating - Fairly comfortable with the ball in his hands, able to break down defenses and get into the lane, capable playmaker, is averaging 4.1 asts/game. Uses size to complete difficult cross court passes. Solid creating diversity, uses quick spins, crossovers, and in and out dribbles to get past all types of defenders. Impressive ability to get to the hoop at will, good instincts. Strong straight line driver, uses long strides/strength to get to the basket while maintaining trajectory. 
  • Finishing Ability - Best current skill. Creative finisher, able to finish with either hand, but has soft touch with left hand (especially on floaters). Can absorb contact and hang to finish over longer defenders, does a nice job neutralizing rim protectors by getting into their body and forcing refs to make a call. Averaging ~6 FTA/game, will likely draw a decent amount of fouls at the next level due to activity level. 
  • Rebounding - Solid rebounder, uses athleticism/length to grab boards. Averaging 6.8 rebs/game, positions himself nicely around the hoop. 
  • Footwork - High level/polished footwork, quick jabs, balanced when attacking, nice ability to step back into jumper. Unique ability to stop quickly with 2 feet when driving, lets defenders go past him after pumping the brakes and hits floaters (soft touch). Work ethic/attention to detail on footwork is evident. 
  • Alpha Mentality - High confidence level player, to a fault at times, unafraid of big moments. Can play with next level intensity, gamer when the lights come on, doesn't back down from a challenge (led Canadian National team to an upset victory over USA in the U19 semi-finals with 38 pts, also led hoop summit international squad to a victory over USA with 20 pts). Seems to enjoy being a star player at Duke, but has adjusted to playing with other stars in Zion and Reddish, helps set the tone for team confidence/identity.  
  • Defensive Upside - Good combination of athleticism/size/length/toughness to be a plus defender. No fear mentality, unafraid to go after other teams best players. Solid foot speed and lateral quickness, has the size/toughness to defend multiple positions (1-4 if necessary). Excellent ISO (83rd percentile, allows .47 PPP) defender. Does a nice job disrupting passing lanes, can generate steals and get out in transition in a hurry. 
Improvement Areas 
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  • Shooting Efficiency - Not a threat as a shooter, defenses tend to sag off and dare him to shoot. Lets it fly at 6.5 3pt attempts/game and shooting 30.9% on said attempts. Lacks touch/consistency, ball can spray off the rim. Below average catch and shoot player (24th percentile). Shows potential, but is wildly inconsistent and is more of a negative at this stage. Needs to improve efficiency as a shooter over time if he's to take the next step as a player. Expanding to NBA range may take some time. 
  • BBIQ/Decision Making - Settles/forces shots within the half court, can get tunnel vision when attacking and will blatantly miss open teammates.  Tries to shoot himself back into rhythm a bit too much, defenses can keen in on this and bait him into inefficient looks. Can get wild when attacking the basket, throws up tough layups after dribbling into dangerous situations. Scorers mentality, will decide to shoot no matter the look/cost. Could improve ability to read defenses and reign himself in at times, needs to pick his spots/playmake a bit more to open up the court. Tends to disregard the shot clock, has the green light. Can appear to play at a different pace than the rest of the team, has tendency to pull back within the offense and pound the ball, could look to speed up tempo. Will go through stretches of invisibility.  Looks like he's going through a workout/training routine during games at times. 
  • Creating Diversity - Could tighten it a bit more while adding counter moves, plays slightly upright with the ball, lack of tight handle can limit quickness/burst. Has some basic counter moves in his toolbox, but will try and slowly zig-zag his way to the hoop at times, works at the college level, but may struggle to create space in ISO situations in the NBA against quicker/longer defenders. Opponents can sag off/pack the paint daring him to shoot or drive it into the teeth of the defense. 
  • Defensive Consistency - Has all the tools to be a lock-down defender, but needs to improve/maintain consistency and overall instincts. Can to float in no mans land as the helper, will lose his man too frequently/easily. Allows dribble penetration too easily, needs to put up more resistance. Could improve ability to read/fight through screens, can get lost off screens at times. Appears a bit passive defensively, perhaps conserving offensive energy or staying out of foul trouble, but could be more of a dog defensively. 
  • Cutting/Moving - Could look to be more active off ball within the half court, part of this could be due to offensive scheme, but has the potential to be an excellent slasher. Tends to stand on the wing and wait for the ball, prefers to go ISO or attack from up top, but would like to see him be more active, could make defenders work more. Currently a poor (12th percentile) cutter via Synergy. 
Potential Questions/Concerns 
  • How much are teams willing to bet/invest in him as their star player? How much could you win with Barrett as "your guy"? 
  • Will he be willing and could he develop into an efficient role player if called upon? How moldable is he? 
  • Is Barrett being held back by playing alongside Zion? What type of production/player would he be if he were the lone star? 
  • What is Barrett's floor as a prospect? 
Write Up
     RJ Barrett was a highly touted prep prospect coming into this season and was widely ranked the top incoming freshman on the majority of boards for good reason, he's dominated the competition and won at multiple levels. He has a good combination of athleticism/size and fits the mold of a prototypical NBA wing, combine that with his competitive nature and you have a player who is tough to bet against. Barrett is an all around player, he is leading Duke in scoring at 23.8 pts/game and chipping in 6.8 rebs and 4.1 asts while having the durability/stamina to play over 33 mins a night. He has all of the physical tools/work ethic to be a force at the next level, but there are still plenty of aspects of his game to worry about if you're investing a top pick on him. Overall he projects to be a high usage/motor alpha dog who puts up big numbers with varying efficiency, his career arch depends on how much he's willing to adjust his role and style of play. 
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